What the sales records say

Comparison 1 of 20

Prices doubled. The number of sales grew six times.

Price index against sales count, 2010 to 2026

The price index is the line most people watch. From the low of August 2020 (112.66) to the record of October 2025 (235.03) it rose 109%. In the same years the count of registered sales went from 36,928 in 2019 to 214,839 in 2025: 5.8 times.

So the last cycle was a volume event more than a price event. A market can absorb a 2% price fall. A market built for 18,000 sales a month has a different problem when the count drops to 13,000, because developers, brokers and fee income are all sized to the count.

Sales: every Dubai Land Department sale record, all property kinds. The register starts to be complete in 2010; earlier years are left out.

Comparison 2 of 20

A cliff against 2025. The third best year on record against every other year.

March to August, each year since 2010

After the conflict started on 28 February 2026, sales from March to August averaged 12,975 a month. Against the same months of 2025 (17,781) that is a fall of 27%. Against January and February 2026 (17,161) it is a fall of 24%.

Change the base and the picture changes. The same six months were 12% below 2024, 21% above 2023, 2.6 times the 2013 boom and 4.5 times 2019. The 2026 market after the shock is larger than any market Dubai had before 2024.

Comparison 3 of 20

The count fell by a quarter. The money fell by almost half.

Number of sales against value of sales, 2025 average = 100

In January 2026 the register took AED 70.2bn, the highest month on record. From March to August the average was AED 36.1bn a month, 45% below the January and February average (66.3bn). The count fell 24% in the same comparison.

The gap is the mix. Land sales and homes above AED 10m carry a large part of the value and they fell hardest (land deals down about 60%, homes above AED 10m down 44% on the same months of 2025). Small homes kept the count up. Anyone who reads the count alone sees half of the fall.

Comparison 4 of 20

Speed: 4,260 sales a week became 3,070.

Sales registered each week, off-plan and ready

In January and February 2026 the register took 4,260 sales a week: 2,690 off-plan and 1,570 ready. From April to August the average was 3,070: 2,170 off-plan and 900 ready.

The two lines moved in different ways. Ready sales halved in one week and then stayed near 900. Off-plan sales fell less at first and then drifted down, from about 2,700 a week to about 1,900 in August. The low weeks at the end of March and May are the two Eid holidays.

Comparison 5 of 20

Sales of finished homes were already falling six months before the conflict.

Change on the same month a year earlier, ready against off-plan

Ready sales were below the year before in August, September, October and December 2025, and in January and February 2026 (down 10.5% and 5.7%). In the same months off-plan sales were 20% to 50% up in every month except October.

The total count hid this. Developer launches kept the headline number rising while the market for finished homes, where a buyer pays in full and often needs a loan, had stopped growing in mid 2025. "Sales fell after the war" is true. "Sales were rising until the war" is true only for off-plan.

Comparison 6 of 20

Off-plan was one sale in ten in 2011. It is two in three now.

Off-plan share of all sales, by count and by value

After the 2008 crash the off-plan market almost stopped: 9.7% of sales in 2011. It passed half in 2019, and reached 62.6% in 2025 and 68.4% in 2026 so far. By value the share is lower (48.4% in 2026) because land and large villas sell ready.

This is the largest structural change in the data. Two crashes, opposite shapes: in 2009 to 2011 buyers left off-plan and the ready market carried on. In 2026 the ready market froze and the off-plan share went up.

2026 is January to 14 September.

Comparison 7 of 20

Off-plan "held up" because of buildings with one developer name.

March to August 2026 against March to August 2025, four kinds of sale

Developer first sales fell 21% while ready apartment sales fell 37%. That looks like off-plan strength. It is not. In March to August 2025, buildings with the name Azizi were 1,433 of 57,693 developer sales (2.5%). In the same months of 2026 they were 10,953 of 45,461 (24%), most of them studios of about 380 sq ft at about AED 0.66m in Dubai South, registered from May.

Take those buildings out and developer sales fell 39%. Off-plan resales fell 38%. Ready apartments fell 37%. The market fell by the same amount everywhere; one block of registrations covers it in the total. A register shows the date of registration, which can be later than the date of sale.

Unit-level records. The split by name uses the building name in the record, not a developer register.

Comparison 8 of 20

For each off-plan resale there are ten developer sales.

Three kinds of sale each month: developer first sale, off-plan resale, ready sale

In 2025 our unit list holds 113,978 first sales by developers, 11,320 resales of homes still off-plan and 45,263 sales of ready homes. The off-plan resale, the "flip", is about 1,000 sales a month. It was 100 a month at the start of 2022.

The flip market grew ten times in four years and is still small: 9% of off-plan activity. Most people who buy off-plan do not sell before handover. The growth in volume came from developers.

Our unit list holds about 95 of 100 off-plan sales and about 55 of 100 ready sales, so the ready bar is a lower limit.

Comparison 9 of 20

Buyers from 2021 flipped five times as often as buyers from 2025.

Share of off-plan buyers who resold before handover, by the quarter they bought

Of the people who bought off-plan from a developer in the third quarter of 2021, 7.2% had resold within 12 months, before handover. For buyers in early 2022 it was 6.1%, and one in five had resold within two years. For buyers in the third quarter of 2025 it was 1.4%.

The fast flip belonged to the first two years of the cycle, when prices were low and projects were few. It faded as prices rose. By the time the market was called a flippers' market, the flip rate had been falling for three years.

Projects with a first sale from April 2020. The 24-month line stops at buyers from Q3 2024, the last group with two full years.

Comparison 10 of 20

The profit on a flip peaked in 2023 and was near zero before the conflict made it zero.

Off-plan resales: price change from purchase to resale, and the share sold at the purchase price

The median off-plan resale in the second quarter of 2023 was 17.3% above the price paid. It fell in almost every quarter after that: 12.5% at the end of 2024, 7.7% at the end of 2025, 6.9% in the first quarter of 2026. A sale costs the seller about 6% in transfer fee and commission, so by late 2025 almost half of flips (46%) made nothing after costs.

The lower chart is the clearer signal. The share of resales registered at exactly the purchase price was 7% in mid 2023, 13% at the start of 2025, 27% in the first quarter of 2026, before the conflict, and 44% in the third quarter. Sellers were leaving at the price they paid long before February.

The registered price is the contract price of the home, not the cash the buyer has paid in. A buyer who has paid 30% of the price and sells 10% higher has made about 33% on that cash before costs. Some same-price records can be transfers between related people.

Comparison 11 of 20

Flips got slower every year: 10 months in 2021, 21 months in 2025.

Months between purchase and off-plan resale, by year of resale

Half of the off-plan resales in 2021 came within 9.9 months of purchase, and 31% came within six months. In 2025 the median was 20.7 months and 11% came within six months. In 2026 so far: 23.5 months and 6%.

A resale after two years is close to handover. That is a buyer who cannot or will not complete, more than a trader who takes a quick gain. The word "flip" covers both and the mix moved from the second kind to the first.

Comparison 12 of 20

Holding to handover paid three times the flip.

Median price change on resale: sold before handover, sold after handover, ready home resold

In the third quarter of 2025 the median off-plan flip made 9.0% over 21 months. A buyer who bought off-plan and sold after handover made 30.3% over 30 months. A ready home bought and resold made 26.5% over 22 months. As a yearly rate: about 6%, 12% and 15%.

The premium for a finished, mortgageable, rentable home is the difference. The flip only beats the others on cash put in, because the flipper has paid part of the price. After February 2026 all three fell: to 0%, 18.5% and 15.6% in the third quarter.

Pairs of sales of the same unit from 2020. Fees, service charges, rent and loan costs are not in these figures.

Comparison 13 of 20

One ready resale in five now sells below the price paid. In 2025 it was one in thirteen.

Share of ready-home resales below the purchase price, each month

Through 2024 and 2025 between 7% and 11% of ready resales were registered below the price the seller paid. From April 2026 the share climbed each month: 14%, 18%, 17%, 18%, 19%, 21% in September.

The price index says prices are 2.3% below the peak. This says something the index cannot: who is selling. People who bought in 2024 and 2025 at the top and need to sell now are a growing part of the market, and a median hides them. The last time the share was this high was early 2021.

Ready homes with two sales in our unit list from 2020. About 600 to 1,200 pairs a month.

Comparison 14 of 20

The developer engine added launches, not speed.

Projects with a first registered sale, each quarter

Fifteen projects registered a first sale in the last quarter of 2020. In the first quarter of 2026 it was 191, the record. The count then fell to 134 and 114.

The speed of each launch did not change. In every year from 2022 to 2025 a project made between 16% and 39% of its first-year sales in its first 30 days, with no trend up or down, and the median project registered about 35 sales in that month. Volume went up 6 times because the number of projects went up, each one selling at the old pace. An engine like that needs new buyers for every launch; it cannot slow down a little.

A project is one building or one phase as named in the record. First registered sale stands in for the launch date.

Comparison 15 of 20

Homes under AED 1m did not fall at all. Every band above fell by a third or more.

Number of home sales by price band, March to August 2026 against the same months of 2025

Sales under AED 1m: 25,887 last year, 25,661 this year. From AED 1m to 2m: down 31%. From 2m to 5m: down 34%. From 5m to 10m: down 40%. Above 10m: down 44%.

The share of homes sold under AED 1m went from 25% in April to 47% in July, and the median price of a home sold went from AED 1.60m to AED 1.05m. Read with comparison 7: more than half of the under-1m developer sales in these months were in buildings with the Azizi or Binghatti name. The cheap end held because two developers kept registering small studios there.

Apartments, villas and townhouses. Land, offices and whole buildings are not in this chart.

Comparison 16 of 20

Dubai South almost tripled. Business Bay and Dubai Marina lost two sales in three.

Sales by area, March to August 2026 against the same months of 2025

Dubai South went from 3,228 sales to 9,327 (up 189%), Majan up 31%, Dubai Islands up 14%. At the other end: Business Bay down 70% (6,532 to 1,986), Dubai Marina down 68%, Dubai Hills Estate down 60%, Downtown down 49%, Jumeirah Village Circle down 48%.

The areas that rose are the cheapest new stock, near the new airport. Damac Islands and Bukadra are at the bottom because their launches came in 2025; a new community always falls after its launch year. The falls that matter are in the established tower areas, where prices are highest and sellers have the largest gains to protect. A Dubai average for 2026 joins two markets that moved in opposite directions.

Areas with 1,200 or more sales in March to August 2025 in our unit list.

Comparison 17 of 20

The price per square foot went up. The home got smaller. The ticket stayed the same.

Off-plan apartments: median size and share of studios, by year

The median off-plan apartment sold in 2012 was 1,090 sq ft. In 2022 it was 814 sq ft and in 2026 so far 747 sq ft. Studios were 15% of off-plan apartment sales in 2022 and are 34% in 2026.

The median price paid for an off-plan apartment has stayed between AED 1.24m and AED 1.40m since 2022, and the median price per square foot has stayed near AED 1,800. The index says prices rose about 50% in those years. Both are true. Developers kept the ticket where buyers could pay it by moving further out and building smaller.

Comparison 18 of 20

The premium for off-plan looks like it is closing. In the same area it has not moved.

Off-plan price per square foot divided by ready price per square foot

Across Dubai, the median off-plan apartment sold for 1.7 times the ready price per square foot in 2020 and 2022, and 1.26 times in 2026. That reads as buyers paying less for a promise.

Compare inside each area and the picture is different. The ratio was about 1.15 until 2017, rose above 1.4 by 2019 and has stayed there: 1.44 in 2021, 1.44 in 2024, 1.46 in 2025 and 1.43 in 2026. Off-plan still sells at more than 40% above the finished homes next to it. The Dubai-wide ratio fell because new projects moved to cheaper areas. The premium is the part of the price most exposed if buyers begin to compare.

Apartments. Same-area figure: areas with 50 or more off-plan and 50 or more ready sales in the year, weighted by sales.

Comparison 19 of 20

Which type did best depends on the year you start from.

Change in median price per square foot to the first half of 2026, from 2014 and from 2020

Start at the low of 2020 and villas and offices are level: both up 158%. Ready apartments are up 79%. Start at the peak of 2014 and villas are up 93%, offices 48%, ready apartments 37%. Offices fell 42% between those two dates, so most of their rise since 2020 was a recovery.

Off-plan apartments are the odd line: up 35% from 2020 and 33% from 2014. The price per square foot of new apartments hardly fell in the downturn and has hardly risen since 2022, for the reasons in comparisons 17 and 18. The villa figures also carry a change in mix: the median villa sold is half the size it was in 2014.

Medians of the sales in each period, not an index. A median moves when the mix of homes sold changes.

Comparison 20 of 20

A cash market or a credit market? It depends on what you divide by.

New home loans registered, as a share of all sales and of ready-home sales

In 2025 there were 27,984 new mortgage registrations on homes. That is 13% of all sales, against 23% in 2018: a cash market. It is 48% of ready-home sales, close to the highest share on record: a credit market.

Both are right. Off-plan is paid in instalments to the developer and has no bank loan until handover. The ready market, which is where prices are tested, runs half on credit. That makes it sensitive to interest rates and to bank appetite in a way the headline cash share hides, and it is the ready market that turned first (comparison 5).

Mortgage registrations on apartments and villas. Some are loans on homes already owned, so the share of purchases with a loan is lower than the upper line.