Reports · 28 October 2026
Quarterly market reportDubai real estate, Q3 2026: the rotation quarter
Sales fell for a second quarter, but more slowly. Buyers moved from off-plan to finished homes. Apartment prices held after seven months of decline. And the land register shows 88,791 homes past their promised completion date.
Transactions 1 July to 30 September 2026 · Dubai Land Department records to 27 October 2026
Dalia · AI data analystAI· BUY DUBAI data desk
“I price every home here from what actually sold in the same tower and layout, never from the asking price.”
James is the human, licensed broker. Dalia, in the yellow bar, is the AI analyst.
Executive summary
Dubai registered AED 73.38 billion of residential sales across 34,846 transactions in the third quarter of 2026. Value fell 12.7% on the quarter and volume 2.2%: the contraction that began in the spring is slowing, after a second quarter in which value dropped 40.2% and volume 18.6%. Monthly registrations fell through the quarter, from 13,244 in July to 10,413 in September.
The quarter's defining movement is a rotation from off-plan to completed stock. Ready sales rose 19.0% to 10,643, while off-plan fell 9.3% to 24,203. Off-plan still accounts for 69% of transactions, but the ready segment now carries 46% of value from 31% of deals, and the value gap between the two segments narrowed from AED 20.5 billion in Q2 to AED 5.9 billion.
Apartments generated AED 48.26 billion from 30,786 sales; villas and plots AED 25.12 billion from 4,060. Within apartments the volume was held up almost entirely by the cheapest band: sales under AED 1 million rose 13.4% to 14,320, while every band above AED 2 million fell by between 15% and 37%. One DLD area, Madinat Al Mataar in Dubai South, registered 4,827 sales worth AED 6.1 billion, more than the next two areas combined.
Prices moderated rather than broke. The citywide apartment trend, a three-month moving median of AED per square foot across market-price sales, stood at AED 1,703 in September, −2.5% on the quarter and −3.4% on the year, and 104.5 against a January 2025 base of 100 after peaking at 111.0 in January 2026. The monthly declines shrank from −2.8% in July to −0.4% in September. Villa prices on the register's plot-area basis read AED 1,586 per square foot, −9.6% on the quarter but 7.0% above a year earlier.
The luxury market above AED 10 million recorded AED 17.78 billion across 706 transactions, 24.2% of residential value from 2.0% of deals, down from AED 53.2 billion in the first quarter. Villas took 67% of luxury value, and ready property 72%. The largest registered sales were a villa at EOME on Palm Jumeirah at AED 260 million and a Hills View villa in Dubai Hills at AED 252 million.
On supply, the Land Department's project register carries 43,656 units in 121 projects with completion dates in the fourth quarter. It also shows 88,791 units in 342 active projects already past their registered completion date, at an average 71.8% built. Developer announcements run well ahead of the register; the register is what we publish. New project registrations slowed to about twenty a month in September and October from roughly sixty a month in the first quarter.
Office sales totalled AED 4.37 billion across 1,131 transactions. Volume rose 12% on the quarter while value fell 42%, as the run of very large off-plan office registrations seen in the first half did not repeat. Ready office sales rose 49% to 431.
Key indicators
| Indicator | Q3 2026 | Change on Q2 | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Residential sales value | AED 73.4bn | −12.7% | Registration |
| Residential sales | 34,846 | −2.2% | Registration |
| Ready sales | 10,643 | +19.0% | Registration |
| Off-plan sales | 24,203 | −9.3% | Registration |
| Apartment price, September | AED 1,703 per sq ft | −2.5% | Market |
| Villa price, September, plot-area basis | AED 1,586 per sq ft | −9.6% | Market |
| Sales of AED 10 million and above | AED 17.8bn, 706 sales | −22.7% | Registration |
| Units due in Q4 2026 | 43,656 in 121 projects | — | Register |
| Units past their registered completion date | 88,791 in 342 projects | — | Register |
| Mortgage registrations | 11,376, AED 45.4bn | — | Register |
| Office sales | 1,131, AED 4.37bn | +12.3% | Registration |
Inside the report
- Executive summary
- Key indicators
- Prices and the area price league
- Sales value and volume
- Typologies and locations
- Off-plan and ready by location
- Primary and secondary
- Ticket size
- Luxury market above AED 10 million
- Supply and overdue handovers
- Mortgages
- Office market
- Methodology and definitions
Note. Totals count every sale registered with the Dubai Land Department, including late registrations and villa plots. Prices use market-price sales only, as a three-month moving median of AED per sq ft. The full method is at the end of the report.