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Dubai Demand Pulse
People, leases, sales, money and new homes, against the headlines. Updated with every data release. Sales to 28 October 2026; leases to 15 October 2026.
No. Buyers went quiet; residents did not leave. 34,471 homes were sold in July to September 2026, against 55,789 a year earlier. In the same months, 72,649 new leases were signed, against 63,814. Dubai has 4,807,185 residents, 226,885 more than on 1 January. The median flat sold for AED 1,693 a sq ft, against AED 1,738 a year earlier. The market has moved from buying to renting. The test is the 104,633 homes due in 2027.
“Dubai is not dead. It is renting. People came back faster than buyers did. If you rent, you have less room to negotiate than a year ago. If you buy a finished home, there are fewer buyers bidding against you, so make your offer from sold prices, not asking prices. Be careful with off-plan that hands over in 2027.”
James is the human, licensed broker. Dalia, in the yellow bar, is the AI analyst.
What the headlines said, against what the records show
Since the strikes of 28 February 2026 the headlines have called Dubai finished. Here is each claim against the records: Land Department sales, Ejari leases and the Dubai Statistics Center count.
| Date | What they said | What the records say | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 March 2026 | bne IntelliNews: “Dubai faces expat exodus as war shatters safe-haven reputation” | Residents: 4,580,300 at the end of 2025, 4,807,185 on 28 September 2026. New leases, July to September 2026: 72,649 against 63,814 a year earlier. | Wrong by September |
| 17 March 2026 | Dinero: “Dubai real estate sector collapses after losing 60% of its value” | That was a share index. Median flat price a sq ft: AED 1,754 in January to March 2026, AED 1,693 in July to September 2026. Home prices moved by a few percent, not by half. | Wrong for home prices |
| 7 April 2026 | Semafor: “Sales volumes dropped almost 30% in March compared to the previous month” | Homes sold: 15,517 in February, 12,734 in March. July to September 2026: 34,471 against 55,789 a year earlier. | Right: buyers went quiet |
| 7 September 2026 | Khaleej Times (Cavendish Maxwell): “Dubai home prices fall for the first time in five and a half years” | Median flat price a sq ft: AED 1,738 in July to September 2025, AED 1,693 in July to September 2026. | Right, but small |
The headlines were right about buyers and wrong about people. Fewer homes are sold, prices are a little lower, and more homes are rented than a year ago.
Headlines as published, read 29 October 2026. Sales: Dubai Land Department, homes (flats and villas), by registration date. Leases: new Ejari leases of one home.
Residents, households and the accounts they must open
Dubai had 4,580,300 residents at the end of 2025 and 4,807,185 on 28 September 2026: 226,885 more in nine months. The count fell by 61,000 in March 2026, the month the regional conflict began, and passed its pre-war level again by July. Source: Gulf News.
Households grew faster than people: 795,200 in 2024, 858,000 in 2025. Source: Gulf News.
Payments people cannot avoid say the same. DEWA added 18,220 customer accounts in the second quarter of 2026; accounts grew 5.63% in the 12 months to June (5.08% in the 12 months to March). 4,900,000 people held Dubai health insurance in 2025, against 4,600,000 in 2024. Private schools opened the 2026-27 year with 406,563 pupils. Sources: Khaleej Times, Dubai Health Authority, Gulf News.
New arrivals: Dubai issued 1,051,978 new residence permits and 66,000 Golden Visas in the first half of 2026. 22,788 foreign driving licences were exchanged for Dubai ones, a count of new residents from countries whose licences Dubai accepts. Sources: Khaleej Times, Khaleej Times.
Homes sold each quarter, finished and off-plan
Buyers stepped back after February. Dubai sold 43,987 homes in January to March 2026 and 34,471 in July to September 2026; a year earlier it sold 55,789 in July to September 2025. Off-plan sales were 25,924 and sales of finished homes 8,547 in July to September 2026.
Prices held far better than sales. The median flat sold for AED 1,738 a sq ft in July to September 2025 and AED 1,693 in July to September 2026. Sellers who did not have to sell waited.
Dubai Land Department sales of flats and villas, by registration date, complete quarters only.
New Ejari leases of one home, by month
In September 2026, 26,991 new leases of a single home were signed in Dubai. Year to date the count has changed by +2.8% against the same weeks of last year.
A new lease also counts a family moving inside Dubai, so this is a measure of movement, not of arrivals. It reacts within weeks: the fall in March and April 2026 and the recovery from July show in the bars above.
New residential leases registered in Ejari (Dubai Land Department), one home, 6 to 13 months, from January 2024.
Output, visitors, rates and the appetite for loans
The economy took the shock that the population did not. Dubai output fell 2.3% in real terms in the first half of 2026; real estate output fell 2.5%. The IMF forecasts −3.9% for the UAE economy in 2026 and +7.7% in 2027. Sources: The National, Khaleej Times.
Visitors fell from 12.54 million to 6.97 million (January to August), and hotel occupancy dropped to 36% in March before it came back to 66% in August. Business activity has recovered: the Dubai PMI read 54.5 in September (above 50 means growth). Sources: Gulf News, Khaleej Times.
Money got dearer. The UAE central bank raised its base rate to 3.9% on 17 September 2026; three-month EIBOR stood at 4.39%. In the central bank survey for the second quarter, the net balance for home-loan demand was −14.6 points from owner-occupiers and −19.6 points from investors (below zero = falling demand). Sources: Gulf News, CBUAE Credit Sentiment Survey.
Homes in the Land Department register, by project end date
The Land Department project register puts 136,568 homes on an end date in 2026; 50,582 of them are already in finished projects. 104,633 are due in 2027 and 101,762 in 2028.
End dates slip. In 2022 to 2024 only 56% of the homes planned were delivered (Economy Middle East (Fitch)). Forecasts for 2026 run from 55,600 (Khaleej Times) to 129,000 (Khaleej Times).
Set against arrivals: households went from 795,200 to 858,000 in 2025, and 226,885 more people arrived in the first nine months of 2026. Between 20,000 and 24,800 homes were completed in the first half of 2026 (Khaleej Times, Khaleej Times). So far the new homes are being filled. The test is 2027 to 2030, with 525,000 homes scheduled (Zawya (Savills)).
Dubai Land Department project register: July 2026 open-data file and the October 2026 gateway pull, one row per project. A project end date is the developer’s plan, not a handover.
Highest price and rent by household income, and how much of the market fits
What a household can pay, by monthly household income. Buying: a first home with a bank loan, under the central bank rules for residents who are not UAE nationals (80% loan up to AED 5m, repayments up to half of income, loan up to 7 times yearly income, 25 years), at the highest common fixed rate today and with 2 points added, as banks test it. Renting: 35% of income.
| Household income | Highest price | With rate test | Share of ready-home sales at or under it | Highest rent a year | Share of new leases at or under it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AED 10,000 a month | AED 1.05m | AED 926,000 | 39% | AED 42,000 | 14% |
| AED 15,000 a month | AED 1.57m | AED 1.39m | 56% | AED 63,000 | 40% |
| AED 20,000 a month | AED 2.10m | AED 1.85m | 67% | AED 84,000 | 61% |
| AED 25,000 a month | AED 2.62m | AED 2.31m | 74% | AED 105,000 | 72% |
| AED 30,000 a month | AED 3.15m | AED 2.78m | 80% | AED 126,000 | 80% |
| AED 40,000 a month | AED 4.20m | AED 3.70m | 88% | AED 168,000 | 88% |
| AED 50,000 a month | AED 6.00m | AED 5.29m | 93% | AED 210,000 | 93% |
| AED 75,000 a month | AED 9.00m | AED 7.93m | 97% | AED 315,000 | 97% |
Rate used: 4.5% (mortgease.ae). The buyer also needs 20% of the price plus about 7% in fees in cash. Sales and leases: the last 12 months of Land Department and Ejari records.
Most residents are not in this market. In the last official wage count (2017), 48.8% of employed non-Emiratis earned under AED 2,500 a month and 18.9% earned AED 2,500 to 5,000; 9.2% earned AED 10,000 to 20,000, 4.6% AED 20,000 to 35,000 and 2.2% more. Source: GLMM (DSC LFS 2017). A newer household income survey was taken in 2024 and is not yet published.
Two-bedroom rent gap and the cost of the commute
A family that moves from Dubai to Sharjah saves the rent gap but pays to drive back each day. A car commute costs about AED 7,292 a year in Salik tolls and fuel (two peak toll gates a day, 60 km, 220 working days), before any value is put on the time. Dubai adds a 5% housing fee to the rent on the DEWA bill; Sharjah charges 4% to attest the lease.
| Dubai area | Across the border | Dubai 2-bed, median new lease | Asking rent there | Gap | Gap after fees and car | Peak drive to DIFC from Dubai area, minutes | From across the border, minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Nahda 2 (Dubai) | Al Nahda (Sharjah) | AED 62,000 | AED 48,452 | AED 13,548 | AED 7,418 | – | – |
| Al Qusais | Al Taawun (Sharjah) | AED 60,000 | AED 50,594 | AED 9,406 | AED 3,091 | – | – |
| International City | Al Taawun (Sharjah) | AED 65,000 | AED 50,594 | AED 14,406 | AED 8,341 | – | – |
| Dubai Silicon Oasis | Al Taawun (Sharjah) | AED 85,000 | AED 50,594 | AED 34,406 | AED 29,341 | – | – |
| Jumeirah Village Circle | Al Taawun (Sharjah) | AED 100,000 | AED 50,594 | AED 49,406 | AED 45,091 | – | – |
| Al Nahda 2 (Dubai) | Al Nuaimiya (Ajman) | AED 62,000 | AED 36,651 | AED 25,349 | AED 19,691 | – | – |
On the border itself the saving after fees and a car is small, and one to one and a half hours a day in traffic costs more than that for most working families. The move pays from the newer, dearer Dubai areas. Asking rents are what landlords ask; signed Sharjah rents are lower, so the real gaps are smaller still.
Dubai: median new Ejari lease of a 2-bedroom flat, last 12 months. Sharjah and Ajman: average asking rent on 28 October 2026. Toll and fuel: Salik and UAE fuel prices, October 2026. Drive times: Mapbox live traffic, median of weekday 07:45 runs from the area centre to DIFC; a dash means not yet measured.
Every figure on this page is held in the BUY DUBAI facts cube with its source. Outside figures are entered as published, with the date read; figures from Land Department sale and Ejari lease records are counted by us. Population figures use the Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment series rebased in July 2026; older Dubai Statistics Center figures are on a different basis and are not mixed in.
Rental data (signed rents, renewals, asking against signed): RENT DUBAI, our sister site for tenants, from Dubai Land Department Ejari leases.